Impact of Public Debt and Exchange Rate on the Performance of Firms in Nigeria
1OKEWOLE, David Dayo, 2ADEDEJI, Elijah Adeyinka
1,2Department of Project Management Technology, School of Logistics and Innovation Technology The Federal University of Technology, Akure. Ondo State, Nigeria
https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v8-i1-65ABSTRACT:
The purpose of this research is to find out the impact of public debt and exchange rate on the performance of firms in Nigeria. Proper understanding on how to investigate the importance of public debt in Nigeria and the degree of responsiveness of exchange rate to public debt in Nigeria. The study adopted a co-relational research design. The population of the study were Central Bank of Nigeria, Federal Ministry of Finance, among others that are listed on the floor of Nigerian Stock Exchange. The study adopted purposive sampling technique. This study covers the period interval from 2000-2022. The relationship between variables was determined using the Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (PPMCC) and Panel Data Analysis that involved the use of both the fixed and random effects analysis. Therefore the study recommends that debt management should be linked to a clear macroeconomic framework which ensures that Nigeria Government will seek to ensure that public debt level and growth rate are sustainable.
KEYWORDS:
Public debt, Exchange rate, Performance, Debt management and Growth rate.
REFERENCES:
1) Adeniji, S.O. (2023) Exchange rate volatility and inflation upturn in Nigeria: Testing for Vector Error Correction Model. Munich Personal RePEc Archive 3(1) 2-19.
2) Adeniran, A. O., Yusuf, S. A. & Adeyemi, O. A. (2020). The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the Nigerian economic growth: An empirical investigation, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences,4(8),224-233.
3) Adepeju A. A., Salau A. S., Obayelu, A. E. (2023) the effects of External Debt Management on Sustainable Economic Growth and Development: Lessons from Nigeria, Munich Personal Respective (MPRA), 2(1), 10-23.
4) Aderemi T. A., Fagbola L.O (2022) Exchange rate volatility and foreign capital inflows in Nigeria, A Vector Error correction model Acts universiatis Danubinus Economics 15(5), 34 -43.
5) Ajayi R, (2000). On simultaneous interaction of external debts, exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables; case of Nigeria. Research monograph series: Centre for economic research on Africa; Montclair state university (online).
6) Ajayi, S.I.(2002). Macroeconomic Approach to External Debt: The case of Nigeria. AERC Research.
7) Alam, N.& Taib, F (2013). An investigation of external public debt with budget deficit, current account deficit and exchange rate depreciation in debt trap and Non-debt trap countries. European scientific journal, 9(22),144-158.
8) Aluko, F. and Arowolo, D. (2010). Foreign Aid, the Third World’s Debt Crisis and the Implication for Economic Development: The Nigeria Experience. African Journal of Political Science and InternationalRelations. 4(4), 120-127An econometric analysis. International Journal of Applied Research, 5(3), 219-224.
9) Asogwa, R.C. (2005). Domestic Government Debt Structure, Risk Characteristics and Monetary Policy Conduct, Evidence from Nigeria. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2005/ macro/pdf/asogwa.pdf.
10) Bamidele T B & Joseph A. I. (2023). Financial Crisis and External Debt Management in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Behavioural Sciences, 3:4
11) Benigno, P., & Missale, A. (2004). High public debt in currency crises: Fundamentals versus
12) Blessy A., Lakshmi K. (2020) Original Sin, Currency Depreciation and External Debt Burden: Evidence from India, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(3), 58-68.
13) Bunescu L. (2014) The Impact of External Debt on Exchange Rate Variation in Romania, Economics and Sociology,7(3), 104-115
14) CavalloM,Kate K, Fabrizio P, &Nouriel R (2005). Exchange rate overshooting and cost of floating. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working paper 2005/07.
15) Central Bank of Nigeria (2024). Annual Statistical Bulletin, vol. 24, June, Abuja, Nigeria.
16) Central Bank of Nigeria (2022). Annual report and financial statement for the year as at 31st December,Abuja: Nigeria
17) Central Bank of Nigeria (2023), Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 26, December, Abuja, Nigeria
18) Danladi, J. D. & Uba, U. P. (2016). Does the volatility of exchange rate affect the economic performance of countries in the West African Monetary Zone? A case of Nigeria and Ghana, British Journal of Economics, Management &Trade, 11 (3) 1-10.
19) Ijeoma, N. B. (2023). An empirical analysis of the impact of debt on the Nigerian economy International Journal of Arts and Humanities, 2 (7), 165-191.
20) Imimole, B., Imoughele, L, E. & Okhuese, M. A. (2014). Determinants and Sustainability of External Debt in a deregulated economy: A Cointegration analysis from Nigeria (1986-2010), American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 4 (6), 201- 214.
21) Kilicarslan, Z. (2018). Determinants of exchange rate volatility: empirical evidence for Turkey.Knowledge (IK), 167-189.
22) Kouladoum, J. C. (2018). External debts and real exchange rates in developing countries:
23) MPRA Paper No. 88440, posted 19 Aug 2018 02:32 UTC, 1-15.Nigeria, Journal of Economic and Sustainable Development. 3 (8).Nigeria. Business and Economic Quarterly, 1, 19–34.
24) Odera Quilent Adhiambo (2015). An analysis of the effect of external public debt on exchange rate volatility
25) Odior, E., S., & Arinze, S. (2017). The dynamics of inflation, public debt and exchange rate
26) Ogbeifun, M. I. (2022). The politics of external debt relief: Nigeria's unique experience, African Journal of Stability and Development, 1(1).
27) Ogege, S. and Ekpudu, J.E. (2010). The Effect of Debt Burden on the Nigerian Economy. Journal of Research in Nationa l Development, 8:2.
28) Okoye, L. U. (2013). External debt: A potential tool, for economic development, International Journal of Management and Social Science Research, 1(2), 18-31
29) Olasode, O. S, & Babatunde, T. S. (2016). External debts and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical study using autoregressive distributed lag model, Business Economics Journal 7 (2) 39.
30) Omotoye, O. Richard; Sharma, H.P.; Ngassam, C.;Eseonu, M. (2006). “Sub-Saharan Africa’s Debt Crisis: Analysis and Forecast Based on Nigeria”. Managerial Finance, 32:7, 606-620 on the exchange rate in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(9),
31) Patrawimolporn, P. (2007). Effect of Exchange Rate on Debt, Debt Services and Public Debt Management in Thailand in the 1980s. Asian Economic Journal, 5:3.Perspective. Journal of International Money and Finance, 70, 452–470.
32) PUAD (2011) Rapport mondial sur le développement humainpresence of foreign debt obligations. Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, 113–134.
33) Saheed, Zakaree S, San I E &Idakwoji, B O (2024). Impact of public external debt on exchange rate in Nigeria. International Finance and Banking 2(1),15-26.
34) Samson, O. & Jonathan, E. E. (2010). The Effect of Debt Burden on Nigerian Economy. Journal of Research in National Development,( 8)2.
35) Sani E.T and Idakwoji M. (2014). Public Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Evidence from Granger Causality. American Journal of Economics European
36) Sanusi, J.O., (2011). The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Nigerian Capital Market and the Reforms. Lecture delivered at the 7th Annual Pearl Awards and Public Lecture Held at the Muson Centre, Onikan, Lagos.
37) Sene, B. (2004). The Impact of Debt Overhang on Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: A Theoretical Model. EURISCO Working Paper, No. 04-17.
38) Sene, B. (2004). The Impact of debt overhang on equilibrium real exchange rate in developing countries; A theoretical model. EURISCO working paper no 4-17signalling effects. Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, 165–188.
39) Soludo, C.C. (2003). Debt, Poverty and Inequality, in Okonjo-Iweala, Soludo and Muhtar (Eds.), The Debt Trap In Nigeria, Africa World Press NJ, 23-74.
40) Staveley-O’Carroll, J., & Staveley-O’Carroll, O. M. (2018).Exchange rate targeting.
41) Tajudeen, E.T. (2022). Public Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Evidence from Granger Causality. American Journal of Economics.
42) Uddin, K. M. K., Rahman, M. M. & Quaosar, G. M. (2014). Causality between exchange rate and economic growth in Bangladesh,European Scientific Journal, 10 (31), 11-26.
43) Zhu, J. (2019). External financial liabilities and real exchange rate jump. North America.