Is There a High Rice Price Volatility in the Philippines: Insights from Bayesian Seasonal Autoregressive Distributed Lag (BARDL)
Vicente E. Montano
Faculty of Business Administration Education, University of Mindanao, Davao City, Philippines
https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v8-i1-40ABSTRACT:
This paper analyzes the high volatility in rice prices in the Philippine market from October 1994 to April 2024 using a Bayesian seasonal autoregressive distributed lag (BARDL) model with three lags. Using a dataset of 160 observations, this model controls for lagged prices and seasonal effects that showed significant persistence in rice prices through the first lag, market corrections through the second lag, and minimal impacts from seasonality. Model diagnostics, including WAIC and LOOIC, indicate the model's goodness but show considerable unseen variability σ, and external factors seem to be prevailing. The findings thereby emphasize the failure of using market mechanisms to stabilize prices and the crucial need for strategic government interferences. It discusses market failure effects, the pendulum approach to economic policy, and welfare economics, urging for a balanced approach that combines market intervention with more supportive policies toward farmers to stabilize the rice market.
KEYWORDS:
Market Failure, Government Intervention, Rice Price Volatility, Bayesian ARDL, Food Security
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