On the Macroeconomic Determinants of Foreign Investor Participation in the Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya
Loice Koskei
Koitaleel Samoei University College (A Constituent College of the University of Nairobi)
https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v7-i2-53ABSTRACT:
The participation of foreign investors in a country's securities market plays a crucial role in the growth of any country. Kenya has continued to experience volatility of foreign investor flows leading to instability in the financial market. The study aimed to identify the macroeconomic determinants, which have a significant effect on foreign investor participation in Kenya. Secondary monthly data for the period January 2020 to December 2023 was extracted from the Central Bank of Kenya, Capital Markets Authority, and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. The multiple regression model with the assistance of SPSS software was employed to analyze data. Findings revealed that the inflation rate, exchange rate, and GDP growth rate had a negative and statistically significant effect on the participation of foreign investors as illustrated by P-values of 0.001, 0.032, and 0.05 respectively, which are less than 0.05. The results inferred that the inflation rate, exchange rate, and GDP growth rate affect the participation of foreign investors at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Interest rate as measured by the 365-day Treasury bill rate had a positive and statistically insignificant effect on the participation of foreign investors as presented by a P-value of 0.107. The results implied that changes in Treasury bill rates do not affect the participation of foreign investors at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The notable fluctuations in currency rates and their volatility, along with the impact of inflation on foreign portfolio inflows, underscore the crucial role played by monetary policy. This should be accomplished by stabilizing the value of the Kenyan shilling. Maintaining the stability of the value of the shilling is crucial to boosting the participation of foreign investors.
KEYWORDS:
Macroeconomic determinants, foreign investor participation, Nairobi Securities Exchange, Kenya
REFERENCES:
1) Arcabic, Globan and Rajaz, 2012. The relationship between the stock market capitalization and foreign direct investment in Croatia: Evidence from VAR and Co-integration Analysis. Financial theory and practice, 109- 126.
2) Soumare, I. And Tchana, F. M., 2011. Causality between FDI And financial market capitalization: Evidence from emerging markets. MPRA 310-328.
3) Alderighi, S., S. Cleary and P. Varanasi (2019), “Do institutional factors influence cross-border portfolio equity flows? New evidence from emerging markets”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 99, 102070.
4) Capital Markets Authority. (2017). Capital Markets Authority Annual Report. Retrieved from www.cma.or.ke on 9th January 2024.
5) Ngugi, R.W. and Nyangoro, O. (2005). Institutional Factors and Foreign Direct Investment Flows: Implication for Kenya. Discussion Series Published By KIPPRA.
6) Gelos, G., L. Gornicka, R. Koepke, R. Sahay, and S. Sgherri (2022), “Capital flows at risk: taming the ebbs and flows”, Journal of International Economics, 134, 103555.
7) Capital Markets Authority. (2023). Capital Markets Authority Annual Report. Retrieved from www.cma.or.ke on 9th January 2024.
8) Capital Markets Authority. (2023). Capital Markets Authority Quarterly Statistical Bulletin. Retrieved from www.cma.or.ke on 9th January 2024.
9) Gordon, M.J. (1992). The Neo-Classical and Post Keynesian Theory of Investment. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 14:4, 425-443.
10) Allen, F., Carletti, E., Cull, R., Qian, J. and Senbet L. (2010). “The African Financial Development Gap”, Working Paper, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
11) Koskei L, Kibet L and Nyangau A. (2016). A Comparison of the Effect of Portfolio Equity on Stock Returns of Listed Banking and Non-Banking Institutions in Kenya. African Journal of Business and Management 10(22), 569-575.
12) Srinivasan, P., and Kalaivani, M. (2013). Determinants of Foreign Institutional Investment in India: An Empirical Analysis, MPRA Paper No. 43778.
13) Haider, M. Khan, M.A. and Abdulahi, E. (2016). Determinants of FPI and its effects on China. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(12), 143–150.
14) Waqas, Y. Nazir, M.I. and Hashmi, S. (2015). Macroeconomic factors and FPI volatility: A case of South Asian countries. Future Business Journal, 65–74.
15) The World Federation of Exchanges Ltd (2018). What attracts international investors to emerging markets? Tayburn, Istanbul
16) Singhania, M., & Saini, N. (2018). Determinants of FPI in developed and developing countries. Global Business Review, 19(1), 187-213
17) Al-Smadi, M. O. (2018). Determinants of foreign portfolio investment: the case of Jordan. Investment management and financial innovations, 15(1), 328-33.
18) Osemene O., & Arotiba K., (2018), “Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Portfolio Investment in Nigeria” Global Journal of Management and Business Research: D Accounting and Auditing 18 (2) 12-19
19) Ogundipe, A. A., Alabi, J., Asaleye, A. J., & Ogundipe, O. M. (2019). Exchange rate volatility and foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria. Investment Management & Financial Innovations, 16(3), 241.
20) Ojong, C. M., Anthony, O., & Arikpo, O. F. (2017). Impact of capital market on foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria. International Journal of Recent Advances in Multidisciplinary Research, 04(7), 2668- 2677
21) Nwosa, P. I., & Adeleke, O. (2017). Determinants of FDI and FPI volatility: An E-GARCH approach. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 8(2), 47-67.
22) Byrne, J. P., & Fiess, N. (2016). International capital flows to emerging markets: National and global determinants. Journal of International Money and Finance, 61, 82-100.
23) Amaechi, B.O., Itodo, I.A. and Ogbonnaya, K. (2020). The determinants of foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria: an ARDL bounds testing technique, West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, Vol. 20 No. 2
24) Ferry, S. (2020). The dynamics of foreign portfolio investment and exchange rate: An interconnection approach in ASEAN, Working paper WP/ 8/2020.