The Impact of Energy Price Volatility on Inflation in Nigeria
1Leera Lenu Kpagih, 2Amini Maton-Awaji Clifford, 3Dr Kingsley Odungweru
1,2,3Rivers State University; Department of Economics
https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v5-i2-05ABSTRACT:
The event of the covid-19 pandemic led to fluctuation in energy prices and different economies are still recovering from the impact of the pandemic. The pandemic also saw a rise in prices which made the cost of living difficult for the common man. This paper investigated the relationship between energy prices and inflation in Nigeria between the years 1985 to 2018. The unit root test performed on the data indicated that the ARDL method be used to analyze the data. The result of the bounds test shows the presence of long run relationship. The long run result shows that energy prices have no impact on inflation in the long run. In the short run the one-year lag of oil price has a negatively significant impact on inflation while, the one-year lag of gas price has a positively significant impact on inflation in Nigeria.
REFERENCES:
1) Atiq, A., (2014). Relationship between Energy Prices, Monetary Policy, and Inflation; A Case Study of South Asian Economies. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Vol 3(1). http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2014-0004.
2) Bawa, S., Abdullahi, I. S., Tukur, D., Barda, S. I., & Adams, Y. J. (2020). Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation in Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol 11(2): 85-113. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2021/STD/85-113.pdf.
3) Behname, M., (2013). The Relationship between Market Size, Inflation and Energy. Atlantic Review of Economics. Volume 2.
4) Conflitti, C., & Luciani, M., (2019). Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation. The Energy Journal. Vol. 40(6). https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.40.6.ccon.
5) Gylych, J., Jibrin, A. A., Celik, B., & Isik, A., (2020). Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Economy of Nigeria, the Core Analysis for Energy Producing Countries [Online First], IntechOpen, DOI:10.5772/intechopen.94055. Available from: http://www.intechopen.com/online-first/73798.
6) Hadzwan, H. D., Chin-Hong, P., & Hooi, L. H., (2019). Energy Subsidy and Oil Price Fluctuation, and Price Behaviour in Malaysia: A Time Series Analysis. Energy, Elsevier, Vol 171(c), 1000-1008. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.01.078.
7) Kilian, L., & Zhou, X., (2020). Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2025.
8) Ozaydin, O., (2019). Energy Prices-Inflation Nexus: A Historical Analysis for the Case of Ottoman Empire. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Volume 5(4):86-93. https://doi.org/10.32861/ijefr.54.86.93
9) Shrestha, M. B., & Bhatta, G. R., (2018). Selecting Appropriate Methodological Framework for Time Series Data Analysis. The Journal of Fianace and Data Science, 4, 71-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfds.2017.11.001.
10) Zhao, L., Zhang, X., Wang, S. and Xu, S. (2016). The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China. Energy Economics, 53: 101-10. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.017.