The Relationship Between Financial Development, Inflation and Economic Growth: The Case of MINT Countries
Asst. Prof. Dr. Mustafa TORUSDAG
Van Yüzüncü Yıl University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics,
Orcid Id: 0000-0002-8839-0562
https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v5-i2-13
ABSTRACT:
Along with the integration of money and capital markets, macroeconomic variables such as growth and inflation, which are among the indicators of macroeconomic stability, are also among the determinants of financial development in developed and developing countries. The relationship between financial development and growth is mostly explained by the process of transferring savings to investments in the literature. In endogenous growth theories, financial development is taken as an indicator of growth.
In this study, the relationship between financial development, inflation and economic growth was examined with the Kónya (2006) panel causality test for MINT countries in the 2010-2020 period. According to the causality analysis, it was concluded that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between the credit given to the private sector, which is accepted as an indicator of financial development, and growth. In line with the causality analysis findings, it was concluded that Arthur Lewis (1955)'s 'supply leading hypothesis' which states that financial development causes growth as well as Joan Robinson (1952) and Goldsmith's (1969) 'demand-followed hypothesis' which states the causality relationship from growth to financial development, are valid in MINT countries.
KEYWORDS:
Profitability, Company Size, Growth Opportunity, Capital Structure, Firm Value
REFERENCES:
1) Acaravci, Songul Kakilli; Ozturk, Ilhan and Acaravci, Ali (2009). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Literature Survey and Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 12 (1), 11-27.
2) Achy, Lahcen (2004). Financial Liberalization, Saving, Investment and Growth in MENA Countries. Middle East Economics, 6, 67-94.
3) Altunoz, U. (2013). Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation, Growth and Financial Deepening in Turkey, Journal of Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 3 (2), 175-195.
4) Al-Yousif, Y., K. (2002). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Another Look at the Evidence from Developing Countries. Review of Financial Economics, 11(2), 131-150.
5) Alexander, W., R., J. (1997). Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence From A Growth Equation. Applied Economics, 29, 233-238.
6) Ang, Jamesi, B. and McKibbin, Warwick J. (2007). Financial Liberalization, Financial Sector Development and Growth: Evidence from Malaysia. Journal of Development Economics, 84 (1), 215-233.
7) Ang, J., B. (2008). What are the Mechanisms Linking Financial Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia?. Economic Modelling, 25 (1), 38–53.
8) Apergis, N. (2005). Inflation Uncertainty and Growth: Evidence From Panel Data. Australian Economic Papers, 44 (2), 186-197.
9) Artan, S. (2006). Inflation and Growth in Developed and Developing Countries: Cross-Section and Panel Data Analysis. Economics, Business and Finance, 21 (239), 108-124.
10) Artan, S. (2007). Effects of Financial Development on Growth: Literature and Practice. Economics, Business and Finance, 22 (252), 70-89.
11) Arestis, P.; Demetriades, P. and Luintel, K. B. (2001). Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets. Journal of Money. Credit and Banking, 33 (1), 16–41.
12) Beck, T., Levine, R. and Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the Sources of Growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58 (1-2), 261–300.
13) Benhabib, J. and Spiegel, M., M. (2006). Moderate Inflation and the Deflation - Depression Link. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, No: 32, 1-20.
14) Berber, M. and Artan, S. (2004). Inflation-Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey: Theory-Literature and Practice. Atatürk University Journal of IIBF, 18 (3-4), 103-117.
15) Bhatia, R. (1960). Inflation, Deflation and Economic Development. IMF Staff Papers, 8(1), 101-114.
16) Bittencourt, M. (2011). Inflation and Financial Development: Evidence from Brazil. Economic Modelling, 28 (1–2), 91–99.
17) Black D., C., Dowd, M., R. and Keith, K. (2001). The Inflation/Growth Relationship: Evidence From State Panel Data. Applied Economics Letters, 8 (2), 771-774.
18) Boyd, J., Levine, R., and Smith, B. (2001). The impact of inflation on financial sector performance. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47, 221–248.
19) Bullard, J. and Keating, J.W. (1995). The Long-Run Relationship Between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36 (3), 477-496.
20) Calderon, C. and L., Liu (2003). The Direction Causality Between Financial Development Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 72 (1), 321-334.
21) Caporale, G., M.; P. Howells and A., M., Soliman (2005). Endogenous Growth Models and Stock Market Development: Evidence from Four Countries. Review of Development Economics, 9 (2), 166–176.
22) Caporin M. and Maria, C., D. (2002). Inflation and Growth: Some Panel Data Evidence. GRETA Working Papers, No: 02/09, 1-29.
23) Chang, Tsangyao (2002). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Mainland China: A Note on Testing Demand-Following or Supply-Leading Hypothesis. Applied Economics Letters, 9, 869-873.
24) Chang, T. and S., B. Caudill (2005). Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan. Applied Economics, 37, 1329-1335.
25) Chowdhury, A. (2002). Does Inflation Affect Economic Growth? The Relevance of The Debate for Indonesia. Journal of Asia Pacific Economy, 7 (1), 20-34.
26) Christopoulos, D., K. and E., G. Tsionas (2004). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. Journal of Development Economics, 73 (1), 55–74.
27) Cuadro, L., Gallego, S., and Herrero, A., G. (2003). Why do countries develop more financially than others? The role of the central bank and banking supervision. https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0304/0304006.pdf. Date of access: 01.11.2021.
28) De Gregorio, J. (1993). Inflation, Taxation and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 31 (3), 271-298.
29) Dehasa, M., Druck, P., and Plekhanov, A. (2007). Relative price stability, creditor rights and financial deepening. IMF Working Paper No: 07/139.
30) Dritsakis N. and A. Adamopoulos (2004). A Causal Relationship between Government Spending and Economic Development: An Empirical Examination of the Greek Economy. Applied Economics, 36 (5), 457–464.
31) Ericsson, N., R., Irons, J., S. and Tryon, R., W. (2001). Output and Inflation in the Long Run. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3), 241-253.
32) Falahaty, Manizheh and Hook, Law Siong (2011). The Effect of Financial Development on Economic Growth in the MENA Region. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 34 (3), 35-60.
33) Faria, J., R. and Carneiro, F., G. (2001). Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?. Journal of Applied Economics, 16 (1), 89-150.
34) Fischer, S. (1983). Inflation and Growth, Cuadernos de Economia. 20 (61), 267-278.
35) Fischer, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32 (3), 485-511.
36) Goldsmith, R., W. (1969). Financial Structure and Development, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
37) Govdeli, T. (2018). Economic Freedom, Tourism and Economic Growth: Kónya Bootstrap Causality Analysis in BRICST Countries. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 379-390.
38) Grier, K., B. and Tullock, G. (1989). An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth, 1951-1980. Journal of Monetary Economics, 24 (2), 259-276.
39) Grimes, A. (1991). The Effects of Inflation on Growth: Some International Evidence. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127, 631-644.
40) Gurley, J., G. and Shaw, E., S. (1960) Money in A Theory of Finance, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
41) Guloglu, B. and M., Ivrendi (2010). Output Fluctuations: Transitory or Permanent? The Case of Latin America. Applied Economics Letters, 17, 381-386.
42) Gylfason, T. and Herbertsson, T., T. (2001). Does Inflation Matter for Growth?. Japan and the World Economy, 13 (4), 405-428.
43) Haslag, J. H., and Koo, J. (1999). Financial repression, financial development and economic growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Paper No: 9902.
44) Hayaloglu, P. (2015). The Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Fragile Five Countries: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 11 (1), 131-144.
45) Hineline D., R. (2004). Re-Examining the Robustness of Inflation and Growth. Department of Economics Paper, Miami University, 1-32.
46) Hodge, D. (2006). Inflation and Growth in South Africa. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30 (2), 163-180.
47) Ilgaz Yildirim, Burcu and Sahin Dilek (2018). The Relationship between Tourism Revenues and Economic Growth in Mediterranean Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test. Yalova Journal of Social Sciences, 8 (16), 73-83.
48) Islam, M., A. ve Shah J., S., A. (2012). An Empiricial Analysis of Causilty between Development of Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries and The Economic Growth in Malaysia. European Journal of Social Sciences, 30 (4), 654-664.
49) Johnson, H., G. (1967). Is Inflation a Retarding Factor in Economic Growth?. D. Krivine (der.), Fiscal and Monetary Problems in Developing States, Praeger, 121-137.
50) Judson, R. and Orphanides, O. (1999). Inflation, Volatility, and Growth. International Finance, 2 (1), 117-138.
51) Jung, Woo S. (1986). Financial Development and Economic Growth. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 68 (4), 333-346.
52) Kar M. and Agir, H. (2005). An Evaluation of Financial Depth Indicators. Journal of Financial Political and Economic Comments, 42 (496), 30-45.
53) Karabulut, S. (2019). The Relationship between Economic Growth and Inflation in Turkey. Optimum Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 6 (2), 171-184.
54) Karaca, O. (2003). Inflation-Growth Relationship in Turkey: Time Series Analysis. Dogus University Journal, 4 (2), 247-255.
55) Karras, G. (1993). Money, Inflation, and Output Growth: Does the Aggregate Supply-Aggregate Demand Model Explain The International Evidence?. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 129 (4), 662-674.
56) Kim, S., H. and Willet, T., D. (2000). Is The Negative Correlation Between Inflation and Growth Real?: An Analysis of the Effects of the Oil Supply Shocks. Applied Economics Letters, 7 (3), 141-147.
57) King, R., G. and R. Levine (1993). Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right. Economic Journal, 107, 771–782.
58) Kocbulut, O. and Altintas, H. (2016). Twin Deficits and the Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis: Panel Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks Under Cross-Section Dependence on OECD Countries. Erciyes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Issue: 48, 145-174.
59) Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach. Economic Modelling, 23 (6), 978-992.
60) Kormendi, R., C. and Meguire, P., G. (1985). Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16 (2), 141-163.
61) Liang, Qi and Teng, Jian Z. (2006). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidencefrom China. China Economic Review, 17 (4), 395-411.
62) Lucas, R., E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 3–42.
63) Mallik, G. and Chowdhury, A. (2001). Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from four South Asian Countries. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8 (1), 123-135.
64) McKinnon, R., I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
65) McCaig, B. and T. Stengos (2005). Financial Intermediation and Growth: Some Robustness Results. Economics Letters, 88 (3), 306–312.
66) Motley, B. (1998). Growth and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 1, 15-28.
67) Muslumov, A. and G. Aras (2002). Causality Relationship Between Capital Market Development and Economic Growth: Example of OECD Countries. Economics, Business and Finance, 17 (198), 90-100.
68) Odhiambo, Nicholas M. (2008). Financial Depth, Savings and Economic Growth in Kenya: A Dynamic Causal Linkage. Economic Modelling, 25 (4), 704-713.
69) Pradhan, Rudra P., Dasgupta, Prateek and Bele, Samadhan (2013). Finance, Development and Economic Growth in BRICS: A Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 11 (1-2), 308-322.
70) Menyah, Kojo; Saban Nazlioglu and Yemane Wolde-Rufael (2014). Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New Insights from a Panel Causality Approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
71) Mercan, M. (2014). Testing the Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis for the EU-15 and Turkish Economy: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis with Structural Breaks Under Cross-Section Dependency. Aegean Academic Perspective, 14 (2), 231-245.
72) Pesaran, M. Hashem (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435, Internet Address: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=572504, Date of access: 27.10.2021.
73) Rapach, D. (2003). International Evidence on the Long-Run Impact of Inflation. Journal of Money. Credit and Banking, 35 (1), 23-48.
74) Robinson, J. (1952). The Generalization of the General Theory. The Rate of Interest, and Other Essays, London: Macmillan.
75) Shan, Jordan and Jianhong, Qi (2006). Does Financial Development ‘Lead’ Economic Growth? The Case of China. Annals of Economics and Finance, 231-250.
76) Shaw, E., S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development. New York: Oxford University Press.
77) Schumpeter, Joseph Alois (1911). The Theory of Economic Development, Massachusetts: Cambridge.
78) Smyth, D., J. (1992). Inflation and the Growth Rate in the United States Naturel Output. Applied Economics, 24, 567-570.
79) Sahin, D. (2018). The Relationship Between Economic Freedoms and Foreign Direct Investments in BRICS-T Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test. Bingöl University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 8 (16), 285-294.
80) Thangavelu, Shandre M. and James, Ang Beng Jiunn (2004). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Analysis. Empirical Economics, 29, 247-260.
81) Tuncay, O. and Oruc, D. (2021). The Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Developing Economies. Journal of Human and Social Sciences Research, 10 (3), 2111-2128.
82) Turkmen, S. and Agir, H. (2020). The Relationship Between Inflation and Financial Development: Empirical Evidence on High and Low Inflation Countries. Journal of Omer Halisdemir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. 13 (3), 577-592.
83) Vaona, A. (2006). Nonparametric and Semi-parametric Evidence on the Long- Run Effects of Inflation on Growth. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Working Paper No. 1286, 1-9.
84) Yaprakli, S. (2010). The Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Turkey. Atatürk University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 10 (2), 287-301.
85) Zoli, E. (2007). Financial Development in Emerging Europa: The Unfinished Agenda. IMF Working Paper No 07245, Washington D.C.: IMF.