Relationship between Export Diversification and Economic Growth, Case of Tunisia (1987-2015)
1ALOUANI Ahmed
21, Ismahène ABID
1PH.D. of Economics 2007, CEMAFI, University of Nice-Sophia Antipolis, Nice, France
And Assistant Professor at the Higher Institute of Business Administration, Gafsa, TUNISIA2holder of a master's degree in economics and future doctoral student. Gafsa, TUNISIA
https://doi.org/10.47191/ijefm/v2-i3-01
ABSTRACT:
If in the empirical literature, the postive relationship between divisification of exports and growth has been detected. However, this relationship does not always come out. As an indication and as we have argued, Michaely (1977), for example, has found a significant positive link between exports and economic growth only in the most developed countries. This was not the case in the least developed countries. In our study concerning Tunisia, we concluded that this relationship, indeed, exists. In this study we chose as period: 1987-2015. On the econometric side, we used the co-integration method. According to the results of the analysis, we found that exports, especially agricultural exports, have a positive effect on long-term growth. Hence, investments in the production of exportable agricultural goods must be encouraged.
KEYWORDS:
Growth, diversification, exports, agricultural exports, Tunisia, positive relationship, co-integration
REFERENCES :
1) Adama, J.A.et Ohwofasa, B.O.,(2015),” Determinants of Agricultural Export Earnings in Nigeria, 1980-2011”,
International Journal Of Innovative Research& Development, Vol .4 Issue 8
2) Afaf Abdull J. Saaed and Majeed A. H., (2015). The causality relationship between exports, imports and economic
growth in Jordan: 1977-2012. EPRA International Journal of Economic and Business Review. Vol - 3, Issue- 7, July
2015.
3) Afaf Abdull J. Saaed and Majeed A .H., (2015). Impact of exports and imports on economic growth: Evidence from
Tunisia. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences. 6(1):13-21, (ISSN: 2141-7016).
4) Aleksandra P. and Massimo T. ,(2013). Product diversification, relative specialization and economic development:
Import-export analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics. 38, (2013), 121–135.
5) Abolagba E.O.,(2010), “ Determinants of Agricultural Exports”, J Hum Ecol, 29(3), pp.181-184
6) Anderson K. and Valenzuela E.,(2009),” Agricultural and trade policy reforms in Latin America: impacts on markets
and welfare”,
7) Ahmed J., Somchai H .,(1995) , “Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between Exports and economic
growth :Empirical evidence from the ASEAN contries ,Economic Letters 49,pp.329-334
8) Akhand Akhtar H. ,(2009), “ Structural change in the export demand function for Indonesia: Estimation, analysis and
policy implications”, Journal of Policy Modeling 31, pp.260–271
9) Augusta Pelinski Raiher, Alex Sander Souza do Carmo, Alysson Luiz,(2017)« The effect of technological intensity of
exports on the economicgrowth of Brazilian microregions: A spatial analysis with panel data », Economia
10) Andres Z., (2007), “ Decomposing world export growth and the relevance of new destinations ”, MPRA Paper, n
30295
11) Alessandrini M., Enowbi Batuo M.,(2008), « The Trade Specialization of SANE: Evidence from Manufacturing
Industries », MPRA Paper ,n°. 13216
12) Arthur J.W, McCord G.C.,(2017), “ Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic
development ”, Journal of Development Economics ,127, pp.133–152
13) Adama, J.A.et Ohwofasa, B.O.,(2015),” Determinants of Agricultural Export Earnings in Nigeria, 1980-2011”,
International Journal Of Innovative Research& Development, Vol. 4 Issue 8
14) BENEDICT A.,(2009), “the impact of agricultural export commodity prices on nigeria’s economic growth ”, economics
, university of Nigeria , nsukka
15) Belloumi M.,(2013), “ The relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the
autoregressive distributed lag model ”, ECOSYS, p. 461
16) Chebbi H. , Lachaal L.,(2007),” Agricultural sector and economic growth in Tunisia: Evidence from co-integration and
error correction mechanism”, MPRA Paper, No. 9101
17) Chun-Ping Chang , Aziz N. Berdiev , Chien-Chiang Lee,(2013) , “ Energy exports, globalization and economic growth
:The case of South Caucasus ”, Economic Modelling 33 ,pp. 333–346
18) Constantine Michalopoulos ,(1998), “TRADE POLICY AND MARKET ACCESS ISSUES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ” ,
POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER ,2214
19) Cadot O., Carrere C., Strauss-KhanV.,(2011), “ Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump? ” ,CERDI, Etudes et
Documents, E 2009.34
20) Dilawar K. and al., (2012),” Exports, imports and economic growth nexus: Time series evidence from Pakistan”,
World Applied Sciences Journal,18 (4) , pp. 538-542
21) Dingjiang C. , Minpeng H., Jiahui W.et al.,(2016), “ Factors controlling phosphorus export from agricultural/forest
and residential systems to rivers in eastern China (1980–2011) ”, Journal of Hydrology 533 ,pp. 53–61
22) David Kanter R. ,Musumba M. , Sylvia Wood L.R. et al.,(2016),” Evaluating agricultural trade-offs in the age of
sustainable development”, Agricultural Systems
23) David Lansing M., (2013), “ Understanding linkages between ecosystem service payments, forest plantations, and
export agriculture”, Geoforum 47,pp.103–112
24) Dokić A ., Jović S.,(2017),” Evaluation of agriculture and industry effect on economic health by ANFIS approach”,
Physica A 479,pp.396–399
25) Dawson P. J. , (2005), “ Agricultural exports and economic growth in less developed countries”, Agricultural
Economics 33 ,pp.145–152
26) Encarnación Moral-Pajares , Adoración Mozas-Moral ,Enrique Bernal-Jurado , Miguel Jesús Medina-Viruel,(2015),
“Efficiency and exports: Evidence from Southern European companies ” , Journal of Business Research 68, pp. 1506–
1511
27) Gnangnon, Sèna K. , Roberts M., (2015) , “ Aid for trade, foreign direct investment and export upgrading in recipient
countries ”, WTO Staff Working Paper, n°.ERSD-2015-10
28) Hiroyuki K. , Beverly L., (2013), “ Productivity and the decision to import and export: Theory and evidence ”, Journal
of International Economics 89 ,pp. 297–316
29) Haichao F. , Yao Amber L. ,Stephen R. Yeaple,(2014), “ Trade Liberalization, Quality, and Export Prices”, HKUST IEMS
Working Paper , n°. 2015-01
30) IBRAHIM, Abbas M.,(2012) , “ MERCHANDISE EXPORT DEMAND FUNCTION FOR EGYPT: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS ”,
Applied Econometrics and International Development ,Vol. 12-1
31) Joseph O.E et al., (2014), “ AGRICULTURAL EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA:A MULTIVARIATE
JOHANSEN COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS” , International Journal of Arts and Commerce ,Vol. 3 No. 3
32) Joao P. A. ,(2015), “ Evidence of growth complementarity between agricultureand industry in developing countries”,
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 34, pp. 1–18
33) Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2),
pp.231-254.
34) Johansen S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive
Models. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pp.1551-1580.
35) Johansen S. (1995). Likelihood based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. OUP catalogue.
36) Johannes R. , Sebastian Baeza A. , Jonathan Barton R. ,(2014), “Chile’s resource-based export boom and its
outcomes: Regional specialization, export stability and economic growth”, Geoforum 56 , pp. 35–45
37) Kónya L., (2006), “ Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach”,
Economic Modelling 23 ,pp. 978–992
38) Karel J.,(2014), “Czech Export Credit Agencies and their Market Power ”, MPRA Paper ,n°. 54097
39) Khaled R.M. Elbeydi and al., (2010) , “ The Relationship between Export and Economic Growth in Libya Arab
Jamahiriya” ,Theoretical and Applied Economics
40) Laxmi Pandey V., Suganthi, D., (2015) , “ Fueling agricultural growth in India: Some reflections ”, Land Use Policy 42,
pp.227–232
41) Muhammd Abrar ul haq et al. ,(2015), “ Agricultural Export and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan”, Public
Policy and Administration Research, Vol.5, No.8
42) Moghaddas R ., Anoushe A.(2016),” Energy consumption and total factor productivity growth in Iranian agriculture”,
Energy Reports 2 ,pp.218–220